Benutzer:Maturion/Paul Goble

Paul Goble (born 1949) is an American journalist and former employe at the CIA and the US State Department. He has worked at

Propaganda

Anti-Russian propaganda

As a regular writer on The Interpreter, Goble regularly predicts the demise of Russia. Some of his stories are made up of exaggerations of real facts, some are merely wrong.

Russian demographics

One of Goble's favourite topics have been Russian demographics. Although having a positive net migration rate and a birth rate of 1.75 children per women in 2014, well above the European Average and the highest in Eastern Europe, Goble declared Russia was "likely to Disintegrate as Result of Demographic Decline". He has been repeating these claims over and over again and has been fantasizing about the "de-Russification" of Russia[1]. He predicted Russia to become a country with a Muslim majority already in about 2035.[2] and claimed ethnic Chechen Muslim women living in Moscow have on average more than 10 children, while failing to give any sources for that number. This would be by far the highest birth rate in the world, surpassing the previous champion Niger, which has a fertility rate of about 6.89 children per women. Despite that, Goble's absurd claims have even been picked up by book authors[3].

In fact, there was a population decline in all non-Muslim countries of the former Soviet Union since 1991, with Russia being affected the least and the only one that recorded a population growth in recent years. Russia's population decreased by 2.6% between 1991 and 2013 and has been growing again since 2009. In contrast, the population of Latvia, a member of the EU since 2004, declined by 25.2% during the same period and has seen no population growth ever since. Several Russian provinces with a Russian-majority population have in fact a higher birth rate than some Muslim-majority regions and the share of ethnic Russians of the total Russian population rose from 80.6% in 2002 to 80.9% in 2010. The highest birth rate in Russia can be found in Tuva, a region with a Buddhist majority

Azerbaijan

Despite it being one of the most repressive countries in Asia, Goble has been affirmative of the Azerbaijani government. He questioned political repression and human rights abuses in the country, denouncing critique as either "inappropriate", "informed by double standards" or "reflecting" the kind of examination that a rising power has to expect"[4]. According to Goble, Azerbaijan should not be criticized as to prevent its geopolitical reorientation away from the West. Although Azerbaijan is geographically outside of Europe, he suggests EU and NATO integration for the country. [5] Due to his near unconditional support for the Azerbaijani government, Goble also came under fire from Azerbaijani oppositional bloggers.

He is famous for the so called "Goble plan", a plan to swap land between Armenia and Azerbaijan for the solution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in 1992. Goble suggested Armenia to cede Zangezur to Azerbaijan, a previously uncontested Armenian border province with an Armenian majority in order to gain recognition of its occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh, a region inhabited mostly by Armenians but within Azerbaijan's internationally recognized borders. [6] In the end, the Goble plan was declined by both sides. In addition, Goble got several facts wrong in his plan, such as claiming Zangezur to have had an Azeri majority (which it didn't according to Soviet censuses taken well before the conflict between the two countries). According to Goble, Russia as well as Teheran have an interest in preventing a solution to the Karabakh conflict. In a 2008 interview he stated that "he was no expert" on either Azerbaijan or Armenia<ref>http://yandunts.blogspot.de/2008/10/interview-with-paul-goble-georgia-war.html</ref>

Summary

Despite Goble often spreading univocal propaganda, his stories have been picked up regularly and he is still cited as an expert.